The hottest led the rise and fall, and the black l

2022-08-11
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Leading the rise and fall, the "black law" reappears in the steel sector

leading the rise and fall, and the "black law" reappears in the steel sector

China Construction machinery information

Guide: how to rise, how to fall. In the first four trading days of this week, the Shenwan ferrous metal industry index rose or fell by 5.04%, 1.50%, 0.79% and -3.17% respectively, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed an obvious adjustment trend on Wednesday and Thursday. Obviously, the so-called black law of steel start-up and market decline

how to rise, how to fall. In the first four trading days of this week, the Shenwan ferrous metal industry index rose or fell by 5.04%, 1.50%, 0.79% and -3.17% respectively, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed an obvious adjustment trend on Wednesday and Thursday. Obviously, the so-called "black law" of steel start-up and market decline has been fulfilled again

analysts pointed out that the start of the undervalued sector is often seen as a signal of the phased end of the market. Under the background of repeated fluctuations in the current market high, the enthusiasm of the main capital to intervene in it is not high, which also makes it difficult for some heavyweight sectors such as steel and banks to become the "fixed sea iron bull" of the market

advance, retreat and hot money led the "roller coaster"

on Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets jumped in large quantities, and the steel sector soared collectively. The main reason for supporting its rise was that the steel futures price rose sharply due to the steel plant production restriction order, which stimulated the strength of steel stocks. The three major steel companies, Longtou Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and steel and Hebei Iron and steel, rose by 7.06%, 5.34% and 6.89% respectively. After hours data showed that the net capital inflow of the steel industry on that day was as high as 700million yuan

on Tuesday, with the strength of breaking through 2700 points in the broader market, the steel sector continued to attack Jinan experimental machine factory, a nationally renowned large enterprise. The Shenwan ferrous metal industry index once hit 2922.36 points, a new high since May, and the index rose by 1.50% at the close. However, behind the rise of the index is the reality of rapid capital outflow. According to statistics, the net capital outflow of the steel industry on that day was 292million yuan, second only to machinery and securities companies

the trend of steel stocks in the next two days proved that the massive intervention of funds in steel stocks on Monday was obviously just to win short-term gains

after a slight decline on Wednesday, steel stocks were even more bearish on Thursday. The industry index fell by 3.17%, ranking first in all industries. Only two of the 33 constituent stocks rose. Linggang (600231), Liugang (601003) and Valin steel (000932) fell by 6.34%, 5.71% and 4.51% respectively, and more than 70% of steel stocks fell by more than 3%. In terms of capital flow, the net outflow of the steel industry on Wednesday and Thursday was 47million yuan and 444million yuan respectively

steel stocks have a certain margin of safety

from this point of view, even with the help of positive information, there is a large-scale capital intervention in the situation that steel plates are difficult to re form processing blocks, which does not mean that it continues to be optimistic about the future performance of steel stocks. Analysts believe that in terms of industry fundamentals, it is difficult to see the bright spot in the downstream demand of steel in the short term, and the production capacity begins to recover rapidly. Affected by this, it is unlikely that the steel price will continue to rise sharply, and the support for the stock price is limited; In the medium and long term, whether the industry can reverse depends on the construction of affordable housing, the sales of automobile and household appliances and the elimination of backward production capacity

moreover, the steel sector has also accumulated a large increase since the low point, which has fully reflected the fundamentals. Although the Shenwan ferrous metal industry index has fallen by 27.53% this year, ranking first among all 23 industry indexes, it has also increased by 18.41% since its bottom of 2265 at the beginning of July, with the largest increase in the range close to 25%

however, from the perspective of valuation, steel stocks are still relatively safe. According to the latest financial data, the price to book ratio of Shenwan ferrous metal plate is 1.45 times, 2.04 times lower than the historical average since 2001, and close to the theoretical lower limit of 1.26 times. At the same time, the valuation premium of the steel sector relative to the net rate of all a stock markets is about 51%, lower than the historical average of 64% and the theoretical lower limit of 55%. Analysts pointed out that the absolute valuation and relative valuation of steel stocks are still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety

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