Find out these three points before discussing pape

2022-09-21
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Find out these three points in 2019, and then talk with customers about the price of paper

in 2018, when the price of paper is easy to fall but difficult to rise, industry enterprises that share hardships with customers and accept price cuts successfully kept their orders. You know, in a period of declining demand, I'm afraid nothing is more valuable than orders. The new contract year is coming soon. How should packaging and printing enterprises negotiate paper prices with customers

before we make a decision, it is necessary to understand the three decisive factors that determine the trend of paper prices in 2019

the situation of oversupply of base paper remains unchanged.

the end of CCTV's financial bolt should be slightly prominent in the nut. A report in November truly exposed the bone chilling of the paper industry, and the prices of national waste, base paper and cartons are declining, but there is a serious excess of inventory. The price of corrugated base paper fell from 5100/ton in May. 6. When the experiment heated up, it reached the current 3700/ton, a decrease of nearly 30%. The price of carton board fell from 5600/ton to 4000/ton, a decrease of 29%

▼ price trend of various kinds of paper (/ton)

data source: zhuochuang information, Soochow Securities Research Institute

in December, the paper mill shut down on a large scale, but the situation of oversupply of raw materials cannot be changed. In 2019, the oversupply situation is likely to continue to deteriorate

Goldman Sachs (the world's leading investment bank) issued a report saying that its view on China's paper sector has turned to prudence. Due to the rapid growth of new production capacity and the slowdown in consumption, the demand for wrapping paper this year and next is weak, and the supply and demand situation is expected to deteriorate significantly. Goldman Sachs predicts that due to the increase in imports, the capacity utilization rate of the packaging paper industry is expected to drop from 83% last year to 75% this year and further to 70% next year

▼ according to the statistics of the packaging paper production capacity expected to be invested in 2018 (incomplete statistics):

some data show that due to the encouragement of last year's wave of market, the paper mills have always overestimated the prosperity of the market, resulting in increasingly excess output. By December, an industry association pointed out that the stock of base paper increased by 40% year-on-year. Especially in July and August, the paper mill was once very optimistic about the upcoming National Day, Mid Autumn Festival and double 11 orders. The factory started production at full capacity, but the result was very disappointed. The expected peak production season failed, exacerbating the situation of supply exceeding demand

one person in the paper industry is expected to reduce the domestic packaging paper production by% in 2018, reduce the increment of imported base paper, and give some discounts, but in fact, the demand for packaging paper will be significantly reduced by%, which means that raw materials will face greater de stocking pressure in 2019

the downward trend of cost integration of various factors in the paper industry remains unchanged.

it is necessary to carefully analyze the trend of mutual costs in the paper industry. Among the costs of the paper industry, 60% - 70% are raw materials, 10% - 15% are energy and power such as coal and electricity, and the rest are labor, depreciation and other auxiliary material costs. Waste paper is about 1.2 tons of waste paper to produce 1 ton of base paper, and pulp is about 0.8 tons of wood pulp to produce 1 ton of base paper

affected by the ban on foreign waste in 2018, raw materials fluctuated violently, exacerbating the turbulence in the paper packaging industry. But the final result shows that the total import volume is not much different from that of last year. In 2019, the first batch of foreign waste approval documents released 5million tons at once, indicating that the alarm of raw material shortage will no longer exist. The RMB exchange rate is likely to continue to decline in 2019, and even the possibility of devaluation cannot be ruled out. However, considering the weak demand and huge inventory, the first batch of 5million tons of imported waste is enough to cover the annual demand for foreign waste of the packaging paper industry next year. It is not meaningful to consume precious foreign exchange and import at a high price

due to the increasing pressure on survival, waste paper shells have become a valuable resource for people at the bottom to break their heads and loot, which not only greatly promotes the recycling of national waste, but also reduces the recycling cost. Coupled with the sluggish demand, national waste is expected to continue to decline in 2019, further driving down the price of paper

in terms of energy, oil led by the United States has fallen by more than 40% in the past month and a half, which is very beneficial to the high energy consumption paper industry, but the decline in the exchange rate in 2019 may offset these declines

on the whole, national waste is likely to continue to decline in 2019, or even run at a low level for a long time; Energy costs have fallen significantly; Environmental protection may loosen with the economic downturn; The proportion of labor cost is too small; Therefore, in 2019, the gap between the oil needle and the valve body should be reduced, and the cost integration of the packaging paper industry should be reduced

the demand for wrapping paper may accelerate the decline

the decline in the demand for wrapping paper in 2018 is the most impressive year for printing and packaging people, and its feelings even exceed that of 2008. In 2019, affected by the transfer of foreign orders, Sino US trade frictions, the cliff like decline in domestic demand and the excessive excavation of iron base, the accelerated decline in demand for wrapping paper is inevitable

in Tianjin, Samsung has closed a factory with 3000 people. With the completion and operation of Samsung's largest production base in India, its last production base in Huizhou has no value. Not long ago, the oil circuit was stable without impact;, Affected by the domestic boycott of apple, Foxconn and Asustek have accelerated their overseas capacity expansion, and Apple's industrial chain will accelerate its outward migration in 2019. In the Shenzhen Vietnam Industrial Park, the only Chinese park in Haiphong, Vietnam, the number of Chinese enterprises visiting here this year is about three to five times that of the same period last year. Since June, three to four Chinese enterprise investigation groups have been received every day. Without exception, these enterprises showed anxiety

China's automotive industry is the third largest contributor to packaging demand in recent years, in addition to e-commerce. However, for the first time this year, there was an overall negative increase, with a year-on-year decline of 18.0% in November. The future situation is not optimistic. The sharp decline in the demand for wrapping paper in the automotive industry in 2019 seems inevitable

let's talk about the real estate industry, which involves 33 industries and is also the pillar of China's packaging and printing industry in the past decade. After the destocking of the third and fourth tier cities in 2018, the policy of housing, housing and non speculation means that this behemoth will gradually die out, with the greatest impact on 33 industries, including the packaging and printing industry, in addition to local finance

some people say that 2019 is the best year in the next decade, but it is the most difficult year for the packaging and printing industry, because the winter of the paper industry will be extremely cold with the superposition of various adverse factors. Therefore, if we can bind several high-quality customers and keep warm in this polar cold wave next year, we will have the opportunity to survive the long winter

with this information, I believe you have a better understanding of how to talk about paper pricing with customers

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